Mathematical models for the new frontier of weather and climate prediction

While packing for a vacation, one of the first things many people do is check the weather forecast to dress accordingly with predictions. Such weather predictions have become instrumental not only for appropriate dress but also for agriculture, aviation, and even hazard response and preparation. What if climate predictions could be made a month in advance with high accuracy? Dr. Sam Stechmann, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, focuses on mathematical problems in atmospheric and oceanic science to improve weather and climate predictions and our understanding of their processes and predictability. Therefore, his research is helping to facilitate the accurate prediction of the weather-climate interface one week, month, or season in advance!

Dr. Stechmann uses new mathematics to understand the extended challenges required by different weather and climate processes; his advanced mathematical models and computations offer novel insight to applications in weather, climate, clouds, rainfall, and their prediction. In so doing, he and his team are able to incorporate multiple variables and probability measures to make sense of something as uncertain as next month’s weather. Additionally, his close collaboration with atmospheric scientists and mathematicians lends a crucial interpretation to understanding observational data and staying up-to-date on the newest challenges. In short, Dr. Stechmann’s combination of advanced mathematics, close collaboration, and translational research makes his work relevant in exciting ways. While his work may help to predict what your outfit will be in two months, even more importantly, it may be the tool necessary for preparing or evacuating an area with two months notice because of an eminent natural disaster and could even help to prevent the disastrous impact on human lives altogether!

Current research includes:

  • Weather Phenomena: Dr. Stechmann is working to make accurate predictions about phenomena that have a large impact upon agriculture and safety. For instance, he is working to predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a phenomenon in the tropics that results in the fluctuation between violent rainfall and clear skies. Similarly, he and his team are examining the predictability of El Niño patterns.

  • Clouds: Clouds are essentially collections of liquid droplets, snowflakes, and ice crystals, each microscopic in size but organized into clouds that span distances of miles or hundreds of miles. In practice, in predictions of weather and climate, it is impossible to use a computer to represent the details of all of these cloud particles. The size of a "weather pixel" is at best the size of a football field and typically even larger -- for example, one mile. The size of a "climate pixel" is even larger. Dr. Stechmann is developing new mathematical models to represent the collective effects of cloud particles on the large scale circulations of the atmosphere, and thereby helping to make better predictions of rainfall.

  • Multiscale Modeling: There are certain things that models can represent and others that are nearly impossible with the use of current models. Dr. Stechmann uses multiscale models to couple different types of dynamics and therefore, he is helping to resolve some of the greatest modeling challenges for climate and weather prediction today.

In college, Dr. Stechmann’s diverse interests led him to a triple major in math, physics, and chemistry. His orientation towards the sciences put him on a fast track towards graduate school where he was introduced to the mathematics underlying weather and climate. This was just the type of challenge he was looking for -- a complex interaction of math, physics, and chemistry -- with implications that could affect the global community.

With the firm belief that weather and climate prediction are important for everyone around the globe, Dr. Stechmann continues to be motivated by his love of science and its impact. For example, weather and climate are crucial for agriculture, aviation, and preparedness for and response to natural disasters. Dr. Stechmann aims to create predictive models for all of these situations in addition to creating a strong theoretical foundation for climate science. In fact, weather and climate prediction are one of math, science, and engineering’s biggest challenges. Two main components are involved: models and observational data. The data is used to help create the best initial conditions for the model, which is then advanced forward in time using computers. But with imperfect models and sparse data, Dr. Stechmann aims to improve the accuracy of predictions.

Aside from research, Dr. Stechmann enjoys playing ice hockey, golf, and tennis. In fact, growing up in Minnesota, Dr. Stechmann spent much of his childhood and time at university playing on school sponsored hockey teams. In order to balance his busy professional life, he now cheers on the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild in his spare time and tries to get as much playing time as his free time permits.

2014 Sloan Research Fellowship

2012 Office of Naval Research Young Investigator Award

2012 Honored Instructor Award, UW–Madison University Housing

2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship

2008 National Science Foundation Mathematical Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowship